Utrecht Science Week: René van Westen on a colder Netherlands in a warmer world

Climate change is putting pressure on the Atlantic circulation. Scientists are therefore investigating how stable the circulation is, how likely it is to weaken significantly or collapse in the future, and what the consequences could be for the Netherlands and the rest of the world.

During Utrecht Science Week, René van Westen, postdoctoral researcher at Utrecht University, will give the lecture A colder Netherlands in a warmer world — how is that possible? He will explain how the Atlantic circulation works, what the potential consequences of its collapse could be, and how close we actually are to such a scenario. Ahead of his lecture, we spoke with René about the Gulf Stream, the possibility of a Little Ice Age and what a changing climate could mean for our everyday lives.

How likely is the Gulf Stream to disappear, and how soon could this happen?

This is an active topic of scientific debate and is also receiving considerable attention from policymakers. Recent studies have shown that the large-scale Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which the Gulf Stream is part, can become unstable under current global warming. Most climate models indicate that the AMOC could reach a critical state around 2060, although there are also a number of climate models that do not show this. Once the AMOC reaches a critical state, it would still take several decades for the circulation to come to a complete halt.

Is there anything we can do about it?

Absolutely. Recent research indicates that the rate of warming determines whether the AMOC becomes critically unstable. The slower the warming occurs, the more stable the AMOC remains. If we significantly limit current global warming, we can reduce the likelihood of the circulation collapsing. We can achieve this by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Can you give some examples of what the consequences could be for our daily lives?

If the AMOC collapses, heat would be redistributed across the planet. For Northwestern Europe, including the Netherlands, this would generally mean much colder winters, with stronger winter storms, drier summers and more rapid sea-level rise. The tropical rain belts would shift southwards, while the Southern Hemisphere would experience additional warming.

What would a Little Ice Age mean for the economy?

Our infrastructure and food security have been built and designed around the mild maritime climate we experience today. If we were to transition to a much colder and drier climate, this could create a range of problems. For example, water pipes are installed at specific depths based on current climate conditions and could potentially freeze during the winter months.

An Elfstedentocht every year?

Ongoing research in collaboration with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) shows that this is a possibility. The very cold winters would provide sufficient ice growth to make it possible to organise the famous Elfstedentocht, the iconic Dutch long-distance ice-skating tour. But this would of course come at a high price, given all the other climate impacts for the Netherlands, Europe and the planet.

Lecture ‘A colder Netherlands in a warmer world — how is that possible?’

During Utrecht Science Week, René van Westen will give a lecture on Tuesday 29 September 2026 about the potential consequences of a weakening or collapsing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Programme

• 15:30 – Start
• 16:00 – Lecture and questions
• 17:00 – Drinks

Location: Utrecht Science Park Foundation office, Heidelberglaan 11, Utrecht
Language: Dutch
Admission: Free, registration required

René van Westen is a postdoctoral researcher at Utrecht University. His research focuses on the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and he is also active in science communication. The lecture is open to everyone aged 12 and over, and no prior knowledge is required.